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Ricardo Anaya Cortés
#1
This is Ricardo Anaya Cortés. He is running for president of Mexico in the June, 2018 elections for the PAN party. (The PAN party is the conservative party in Mexico, like the Republican party in the US.) He has a PhD. in political science. There is a good chance he will be the next president of Mexico, as the current president, Enrique Peña Nieto, from the PRI party has an extremely low popularity rating.

As you can tell from his almost unaccented English, he has obviously spent a lot of time in the US. However, you could not tell in Mexico as there is no mention of his childhood education in his curriculum vitae. In Mexico, it is not good for a politician to appear to be too close to the US.

Más vale pocos pelos, pero bien peinados.
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#2
Let me give you an example of how politicians can look right into your eyes and lie to you.

Ricardo Anaya, in his speech, argues that immigrants from Mexico are not criminals. As proof, he says that during the period when immigration to the US doubled, the crime rate in the US decreased. That statement is true. But it in no way proves that immigrants do not have a higher criminality than Americans. This is because they are two different populations with two different sizes and characteristics. Let me give you an example of how Anaya's speech is deceiving.

Say the population of the US is 300 million and the initial murder rate was 6 per 100,000. Then say over the measurement period, the murder rate dropped to 5 per 100,000. With a population of 300 million, that means a drop of 1 per 100,000 equates to a reduction of 3,000 deaths from murder. 

Now, let us say the initial murder rate among immigrants was the same as the general population, and the population of immigrants was 5 million. Then let us say over the measurement period, Trump was correct, and Mexico sent us all their criminals. Say the murder rate among the population of immigrants in the USA doubled, from 6 per 100,000 to 12 per 100,000, and the population of immigrants also doubled to 10 million.

Well, 5 million immigrants with a murder rate of 6 per 100,000 produces 300 murder victims. A population of 10 million immigrants with a murder rate of 12 per 100,000, produces 1,200 deaths.

So, when you take the reduction of 3,000 deaths in the US population, and add back the 900 additional deaths in the immigrant population (1,200 - 300), you still get a total reduction of 2,100 deaths over the measurement period.

Therefore, saying that the murder rate lowered while the number of immigrants increased in no way proves that immigrants are no more likely to commit crimes than American citizens. Anaya has a PhD, he already knows this is true, yet he offered his numbers up as proof anyway.

And many, many Americans sucked it all up without question. Did you see anybody in his college student audience raise his hand to question his statistics?
Más vale pocos pelos, pero bien peinados.
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#3
[Image: 33wva4x.png]
Más vale pocos pelos, pero bien peinados.
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