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SERIES OF PACIFIC STORMS TO IMPACT CALIFORNIA THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY
#1
CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING FOR A SIGNIFICANT WET PERIOD ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA BEGINNING THURSDAY JANUARY 19TH...AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY JANUARY 24TH. UNLIKE THE LAST Series OF STORMS...THE STORM TRACK LATER THIS WEEK WILL BE SUPPRESSED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH ACROSS THE PACIFIC TO INCLUDE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION. LITTLE RECOVERY TIME IS EXPECTED BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

THIS WILL BE THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2010 THE DEVELOPING WEATHER PATTERN WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ENHANCED RUNOFF INTO AREA STREAMS AND MAIN-STEM RIVERS. IN ADDITION...AFTER THE FIRST AND SECOND STORMS...THE SOILS WILL LIKELY HAVE LITTLE CAPACITY TO ABSORB MUCH MORE RAIN...WITH MOST OF IT BECOMING RUNOFF.

THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRONGER SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL EXIST IN AND BELOW RECENT BURN SCARS AND IN POORLY DRAINED URBAN AREAS.

Some very preliminary 6-DAY forecast rainfall totals for Thursday through Tuesday of next week...

Coast...........2 to 4 inches.
Valleys.........3 to 5 inches.
Mountains.......5 to 10 inches.
Upper deserts...1 to 3 inches.
Lower deserts...1 to 2 inchES.

SOME FAVORED COASTAL SLOPES COULD RECEIVE A FOOT OR MORE OF RAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL FLUCTUATE MOSTLY BETWEEN 4500 AND 5500 FEET... WHICH WILL HELP TO MITIGATE RUNOFF FROM THE UPPER MOUNTAIN SLOPES INITIALLY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THE FREEZING LEVELS MAY RISE FOR A TIME DURING THE FINAL STORM IN THIS SERIES. THIS COULD AUGMENT RUNOFF. SEVERAL FEET OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN COMMUNITIES BY NEXT TUESDAY.

SEVERAL OF OUR RIVER SYSTEMS HAVE NOT RECORDED SIGNIFICANT FLOW SINCE 2010 INCLUDING THE SAN LUIS REY ...SANTA MARGARITA ...AND THE MOJAVE. THE SAN DIEGO RIVER RESPONDS MORE QUICKLY TO RAINFALL AND RUNOFF AND WILL LIKELY EXCEED MONITOR LEVEL...FLOWING OVER SOME OF THE LOWER WATER CROSSINGS IN MISSION VALLEY AT TIMES.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE SANTA MARGARITA...SAN DIEGO...WHITEWATER...MOJAVE...AND TIJUANA RIVERS MAY RECORD SIGNIFICANT FLOWS.

* THE SAN DIEGO AND SANTA MARGARITA RIVERS MAY REACH FLOOD LEVELS.   THIS WILL IMPACT TRAVEL THROUGH MISSION VALLEY... AND ON   VANDERGRIFT AND STUART MESA ROADS ON CAMP PENDLETON. ROAD  CLOSURES ARE POSSIBLE.

* FOR THE MOJAVE RIVER...PRESENT RAINFALL EXPECTATIONS WOULD NOT  RESULT IN THE RIVER REACHING FLOOD LEVEL. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT  FLOWS IN THE HIGH DESERT ARE RARE AND MAY IMPACT LOW WATER   CROSSINGS AND AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS IN AND NEAR THE RIVER   CHANNEL.

* THE WHITEWATER RIVER DRAINS INTO THE COACHELLA CANAL WHICH FLOWS  THROUGH HEAVILY POPULATED AREAS IN THE COACHELLA VALLEY. LOW- WATER CROSSINGS MAY BE INUNDATED AND BARRICADED AT TIMES IF THE  FLOW BECOMES MODERATE TO HEAVY.

* THE TIJUANA RIVER TENDS TO RESPOND QUICKLY TO HEAVY RAINFALL   RATES...ESPECIALLY WHEN THE SOIL HAS BECOME SATURATED. RESIDENTS   AND INTERESTS IN THE TIJUANA RIVER VALLEY SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR  FLOODING AT TIMES THIS COMING WEEKEND AND MAKE PREPARATIONS TO   MOVE EQUIPMENT AND ANIMALS TO HIGHER GROUND IF NECESSARY.

* FLOWS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN LUIS REY RIVER EARLY NEXT WEEK.   AFTER YEARS OF VERY LITTLE FLOW...DENSE OVERGROWTH HAS DEVELOPED   IN THE CHANNEL. ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOW CAN RESULT IN FLOODING DUE  TO TEMPORARY CHANNEL BLOCKAGES THAT MAY DEVELOP. LOCAL FLOODING  IS POSSIBLE IN UPSTREAM AREAS FROM BONSALL TO PAUMA VALLEY. SOME   ROAD IMPACTS OR CLOSURES ARE POSSIBLE... INCLUDING SHEARER   CROSSING...COUSER CANYON AND LILAC ROAD.

A PRELIMINARY FORECAST FROM THE CALIFORNIA-NEVADA RIVER FORECAST CENTER HAS THE SAN DIEGO RIVER REACHING 7.5 FT BY 6 PM PST FRIDAY. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME CLOSURES OF LOW-WATER CROSSINGS IN MISSION VALLEY THEN. WATCH FOR LAXRVSSGX ISSUANCES FOR RIVER FORECAST LEVELS IN THE COMING DAYS...OR CHECK THE WEB AT: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=SGX

SOME FLOODING IS LIKELY LATER THIS WEEK. EXPECT ROAD CLOSURES OR DELAYS AT LOW-WATER CROSSINGS AND URBAN FLOODING AT TIMES OF HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. WATCH FOR UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WATCHES AND
WARNINGS AT WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
Más vale pocos pelos, pero bien peinados.
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#2
Exclamation 
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
255 PM PST THU JAN 19 2017

...STRONG WINDS FRIDAY AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...

...CONTINUED STRONG WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ON SATURDAY...

.A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS FOR THE REST OF TODAY WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY...BRINGING STRONG AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO THE COAST AND VALLEYS IN ADDITION TO THE MOUNTAINS AND SAN DIEGO DESERTS...WHILE WINDS ARE STILL STRONG BUT NOT QUITE AS POWERFUL IN THE OTHER DESERT AREAS. BLUSTERY WINDS CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS ON SATURDAY BEFORE WEAKENING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STRONG STORM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AGAIN LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
Más vale pocos pelos, pero bien peinados.
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